How Would The Novel Coronavirus Affect Jamaica’S Tourism?

The treatment of a suspected case of Novel Coronavirus at the UWI hospital_ local news headline in Jamaica. Soon after that news report, The Ministry of Health and Wellness called a press conference to deny the report. If reports were true, that the Novel Coronavirus was on the Island, what impact would it have on Jamaica’s economic? How would the Novel Coronavirus affect Jamaica’s tourism, if there was an outbreak on the Island?

What is the coronavirus?

Coronavirus is a large family of viruses that have been around for centuries. Some Coronavirus affects humans while others circulate among animals such as bats, cat, and camel.

Well Know types of Coronavirus

• Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS ,
• Acute Respiratory syndrome SARS.
• Novel Coronavirus (2019 -nCoV) new

MERS outbreak started in Saudi Arabia in 2012 and spread to other countries in Africa, Midle East, Europe and Asia. Infected Camels were the source of the MERS virus.

SARS outbreak started in China 2002 the source of infection was trace back to bats.

The first case of Novel Coronavirus was detected in Wuhan China. Bats were the main suspect although it has not been confirmed. So far this virus has infected over 20,000 people and counting. Wuhan China has the most reported cases, but the virus had spread to other parts of the world.

WHO has not yet declared the Novel Coronavirus a pandemic, despite it spreading to other countries.

Coronavirus is spread by :

• droplets from cough
• contact with an infected person
• handling of contaminated animal product
• contact with animals
• contaminated surfaces

Some symptoms of the Novel Coronavirus are similar to those of a common cold. Such as respiratory symptoms, cough and fever. Note,however that coronavirus can cause kidney failure or even death especially if there are underlining health conditions.

Protective Measures :

• Washing hands often
• wearing a surgical mask
• avoid contact with animals
• cook animal product properly
• avoid contact with an infected person
• cover mouth when coughing

This virus has no cure, but they are looking at the possibility of developing something from the SARS vaccine. Because the Novel Coronavirus and SARS are closely related.

Tourism & the Jamaica economy.

One of Jamaica’s main source of foreign exchange is tourism. Only remittance and bauxite rival tourism in foreign exchange earning. Over three billion dollars was earned from tourism in 2018, with an estimated one billion dollars remaining in the country. Adding much-needed cash to the cash strap economy.

Furthermore, the tourism sector employs 9 percent of Jamaica’s labor force which is about 120000 persons. Therefore, any disruption in this sector would cause a significant drop in revenue for Jamaica.

Particularly, a significant decrease in tourist arrival from the US would impact Jamaica’s ability to earn foreign currency. Therefore, reducing the country’s purchasing power. Basic supplies such as food, oil, and medicine would be unaffordable. These are necessities that Jamaica needs but do not produce therefore the country would face many difficulties.

Less money to purchase oil would Impact power production and transportation causing a domino effect, on all sectors.

Lack of foreign currency would limit Jamaica’s ability to purchase medicine and medical equipment. This would put the health sector in a precarious position. Because Jamaica imports, most of its health equipment and medical supplies.

Jamaica healthcare system

Although many healthcare professionals graduate yearly from our colleges and universities, the system is still understaffed. Mainly because of the migration of a significant number of healthcare professionals.

To make matters worse, agents attractively recruit Jamaican nurses and doctors for overseas employment. Putting further strain on a system struggling to find the resource and retain staff. To further compound the problem, limited resources are allocated to the health sector.

If that wasn’t enough, over crowed hospital is added to the mountain of problems already in the health sector. For, every thousand people on the island there are 1.2 hospital beds available. Therefore, any major influx of patients would put a serve strain on the system plus only 9.6 doctors available to ever 100,000 people.

Chikungunya (Chik-V) outbreak shows how the Coronavirus could affect Jamaica.

According to Doctor Christopher Tufton, Jamaica’s Minister of Health and Wellness, about 1.9 million people contracted Chik-V in 2014. That is about 70% of the population. Eight in every ten Jamaicans had a positive serum (blood) test for chikungunya.

The high rate of Chik-V infection causes a significant drop in production, because of high absenteeism among employees. Because the crippling pain from the virus infection had some people bedridden for days.

Infected aedes egypti mosquito spread the disease from human to human. That mosquito also spreads the dengue virus and the Zika virus which infected many Jamaicans

A disease transmitted by mosquitoes infected over 70% of Jamaica’s population in only a few months. Can you imagine the effect if it was airborne? Given Jamaica’s make up no one would have been spared.

Jamaica Demography

Most Jamaica’s population lives in an urban environment, Kingston and Saint Andrew accounting for over 590,000 people. Following closely is Saint Catherine with over 400,000 people. Other parishes with large urban areas are Clarendon and Saint James. Kingston & Saint Andrew and Saint Catherine have over 40% of Jamaica’s population.

Most rural to urban migration ends up in Kingston. This results in a limited space available for housing and an increase in the price for houses. Lack of housing in Kingston force people, looking to improve their standard of living, to settle in other parishes. Result in rapid urbanization of the rural areas.

Modern Amenities are now accessible in all parts of the island. Rural folks now long live on a farm or in the hills miles away from the roadways. Most people live in housing schemes or villages, where the houses are close to each other. Contacting many people more frequently.

The urbanization of Jamaica makes it easier for an airborne disease to affect a large group of people over a short period. The rapid spreading of ChikV is a perfect example of how viruses can spread rapidly in urban areas. Areas in Jamaica with high population density were most affected by this disease.

What would happen if the government tries to cover up the Coronavirus

Jamaica’s worse fear has been realized, the Novel Coronavirus has been detected on the island. The infected individual has been isolated and is been monitored, but someone did not follow protocol and was infected.

The government tries to keep this information a secret because they do not want to disrupt the cash cow _ tourism. But, secrets don’t keep for a long time in Jamaica, because Jamaican’s love to talk. Local social media is flooded with jokes about the virus. Because, this is Jamaica we take nothing too seriously, and we can find humor in the most tragic situations.

Rumors of the Novel Coronavirus on the Island are spreading like wildfire. Local media takes notice and is bringing some attention to this developing situation. The major news media in Jamaica are very competitive, each salivating to be the first to break this story.

Jamaica’s government is under tremendous pressure from the opposition, to make this information public. They know what is going on because they have their people in all areas of the health sector.

Jamaican Vloggers are having a great time racking views making jokes and talking about the virus.

Locals are getting restless because they have been hearing stories but nothing official from the government. The government is getting nervous because Jamaica is getting attention from the international press and its major trading partners.

It is true when the government says so.

Finally, the Ministry of health gives an official statement, admitting that Novel Coronavirus is on the island. Then he tries to downplay the number of confirmed cases, saying that everything is under control.

Now that it is official, the naïve, section of the population takes the threat seriously. There is a rush on surgical masks, suddenly at every stall and stoplight, there is someone selling this product. Before long, the wearing of a surgical mask becomes a fashion statement. Everybody is adding their personal touch to their mask.

On every street corner, there is someone purporting to have the cure for the Coronavirus, trying to sell some concoction that they had created. Suddenly everyone telling you which bush to boil if you catch the virus.

Because of Jamaica’s urban population, the virus is threatening to infect over 90% of the population, a much higher infected rate than ChikV.

Healthcare facilities are under pressure

Everyone is rushing to the healthcare facilities seeking treatment for Novel Coronavirus. Every symptom of the virus, image or real cause some people to run to health facilities, creating a bottleneck. While those who are sick and need help stay home _self-medicating. Because in Jamaica there is no flu symptom that a peg of garlic and floss of white rum cannot cure. When the sickness gets worse, some bush tea always does the trick.

Overwork nurses and doctors are under pressure dealing with the large influx of patients. And not enough space to accommodate them. The virus is now infecting doctors because they are overwork, so they make mistakes. Lack of resources further compounds the problem.

Infections have spread to the general hospital population, caused by infected doctors.

Blame the Chinese for the Novel Coronavirus

With images constantly been fed to the public of Chinese National being the first to be infected by Novel Coronavirus. The public is now fearful of coming into contact with Chinese people. Popular Chinese stores are now scanty. People now longer clamoring to buy cheap products from Chinese wholesalers. No one wants to catch the virus.

Unable to travel to China for cheap goods plus shoppers fear for doing business with the Chinese, most wholesalers shutter their stores. Waiting anxiously to wake from this nightmare.

Novel coronavirus would be disastrous for tourism

Soon after the announcement was made by the minister of Health and Wellness, a travel ban was placed on Jamaica by its main partners. No more tourists from the USA or Canada to fill the all-inclusive hotels. The faces of happy tourists on the beach soaking up the sun disappear in the blink of an eye.

The novel coronavirus is now synonymous with Jamaica, some people even forgetting that it started in China. Traveling to Jamaica is now like traveling to Hiroshima. Only Travellers to the island are UN personnel or Volunteers trying to help.

Major hotel chains are counting their losses and making plans to set up shop elsewhere.

Travel agents are scrambling to find alternative destinations packages for their clients. Travel insurers are busy forking out thousands of dollars to clients.

Jamaica Minister of Tourism is busy trying to convince Travellers it is safe to travel to Jamaica. While hotels and resorts are offering huge discounts to travelers and incentives for travel agents.

They are depending on Jamaicans to fill those empty rooms on the North Coast. This is not working out because the economy is in shambles and no one wants to leave their home for travel.

There is a total collapse of the tourism sector. Recovery will be long and hard.

Novel coronavirus is no joke

Novel coronavirus is no joke. Therefore, serious planning is needed, to ensure that it doesn’t impact the island. Planning needs to be in place to deal with the worse case scenarios.

This virus has the potential to devastate small economies like Jamaica that depends on tourism.

Although the scenarios above are just my paranoid mind going wild, the possibilities are real.

Base on the country experience with a lot less contagious disease, ChikV, which resulted in a 70 percent infection rate, the Novel Coronavirus possibilities are frightening.

Facilities need to be in place to stop Novel Coronavirus from landing on our shores. Safeguarding Jamaica must be a priority. Therefore, the Novel Coronavirus needs to be treated as a national security threat.

There is no confirm case of coronavirus in Jamaica

This article is just to show what could happen if we do not take the precautions to prevent the spread of the Coronavirus on the island. At the writing of this post, Jamaica has been free from the Coronavirus. Therefore, it is safe for visitors to travel.

Note however that traveling to and from China has been banned by the Jamaican government. Extra precautions are been taken at Jamaica’s ports of entry. Passengers are being screened for any sign of the virus especially those traveling from the region that has been affected. They place passengers who show any signs of infection in isolation until medical officials are certain that they are not carrying the virus.

So if you are traveling to the island and you are experiencing and flu-like symptom it would be wise to postpone your trip until it has been cleared up. It will save you the inconvenience of being examining closely and place in isolation or denied entry.

I will post an update in the chat section of this blog if the situation changes.

For updates click here.